The September survey shows that 82.3 percent of the questioned credit institutions forecast quarterly improvement in their business performance for Q4, and 87.1 percent expected the same for this year compared to 2018. Notably, 28.4 – 29.7 percent of them predicted “much improvement”, compared to 20 – 27.4 percent in the June survey.
Up to 91 percent of the interviewees believed that their pre-tax profit this year will increase from 2018, 3 percent forecast unchanged figures, and 6 percent were worried about a decline.
The mobilised capital across the system is expected to grow 4.39 percent in Q4 and 13.06 percent in 2019, down 0.42 percent from the previous survey’s forecast but still higher than the 12.45-percent pace in 2018.
Credit growth of the whole system is forecast at 4.85 percent for Q4 and 13.61 percent for this year, down 0.72 percent from the expectation in the previous survey and also lower than the 13.88-percent expansion in 2018.
Meanwhile, 79.4 percent of the credit institutions predicted that risks of client groups will remain unchanged, 12.8 percent said risks may rise “slightly”, and 7.8 percent expected they will decrease.
For 2019, 60 percent said risks of client groups will stay stable compared to last year, and another 20 percent expected a fall.
According to the survey, 76.5 percent of the respondents reported improved business performance in Q3 compared to Q2, with 20.6 percent “much improved”.